A New Scare for 2025: Windows 10 is Ending
So will this be the forced-upgrade-event that finally drives the masses to Linux?
The all-too-familiar Windows 10 update screen (photo by Clint Patterson on Unsplash)
A great deal has already been written about Microsoft's plans to phase out Windows 10 in October 2025. While phasing out software is not new, for many people, this time it will be different. This is because older computers will just not meet Microsoft’s strict hardware requirements for the next version of Windows. For small business owners, this is one more thing to worry about.
Because, you know, the tariffs weren’t enough of a setback; now we need a new crisis.
As I said, upgrade cycles are nothing new, but this time, I believe there are several factors that are going to make this year especially difficult. That is why I also believe that more people will be making a move away from Microsoft Windows towards Linux.
Yes, I know that this is a hot-button topic online with every upgrade cycle. Pundits and influencers start posting about a great new migration to Linux… Then, when the time comes, zeal for switching to another operating system quickly fizzles out. When the time comes, many people will just swallow the jagged Microsoft pill and buy new computers.
However, several factors will come together in 2025, like a perfect storm, that may just make this switch more of a possibility for more people. Not for everyone, of course, but most certainly more than with every other end-of-life operating system event.
Let me explain.
The Crux of the Issue (in Non-Computerese)
If you haven’t been paying attention, Microsoft announced (to their credit, they did so some time ago) that the next version of Windows, version 11, would require beefier hardware. In the past, that meant adding some new parts to the computer and everything was fine. This time, it won’t be so easy. The parts that are needed, like a TPM 2.0 chip and a better CPU, can’t simply be added to older computers. While PC computers are known to be easily upgradable, this time they won’t be.
So, if you run a small business, you may need to replace every Windows computer with a brand new one. That old HP or Dell laptop from before Covid, likely won’t be upgradable. You will need to budget for that expense this year.
There are hacks and workarounds that people have posted online, but those are all discouraged by Microsoft. There is also the very real possibility that the company will enforce this with any upcoming update. Since those are distributed just about every week, every week could be the last for your computer. Do you really want to put your whole business at risk like that?
It should be noted that Microsoft has offered a band-aid for this: you can purchase extended support for Windows 10, but that will set you back $61 per device, per year, as stated on Microsoft’s Website. It is really meant as a temporary fix, and not a permanent one. At some point, Microsoft expects you to replace those older computers.
What if, like many other startups, you simply can’t afford to purchase the extended support or replace computers? What if you are a home-based solopreneur, and you are barely making ends meet? It may simply not be possible to absorb that extra cost, especially not in this economy.
This is why I believe that this time things will be different. It is actually one of several reasons why I believe that.
Extenuating Factor #1: The Economy
Budgets are tight everywhere, but especially for small businesses (photo by Pixabay)
Like most small businesses, this economy has not been forgiving. Tariff threats have driven up your costs already. This has also impacted your customers. They are buying less, even if you haven’t raised your prices, because they also have less to spend.
You may also be struggling just to purchase things you need for your business: ingredients, parts, and components – not just because they are more expensive, but in some cases, they simply aren’t readily available anymore. This goes for shipping supplies, too. Oh, and the cost of shipping has also gone up.
The trifecta about the economy is that it also doesn’t look like things will improve anytime soon. The president has said that the American people will just have to buy less this Christmas. Now Christmas is still more than 6 months away, so that’s not a good outlook for the near future. Oh, and never mind that the holidays is also supposed to be when you traditionally have your biggest sales… So maybe that won’t be the case this year. And that will happen right after Microsoft pulls the plug on your Windows 10 computers, too. This is all suggesting a pretty gloomy Winter, which brings me to my second point.
Extenuating Factor #2: The Doom & Gloom
Not only will costs be higher for everyone this winter, but there is an overwhelming sense of dread, uncertainty, and negativity about the country as a whole. This just isn’t good for business. People buy when they feel good about things, not when they feel bad.
This is bigger than the economy. People are fearful and divided. They see that other people are being snatched off the streets often for questionable reasons. No matter where you stand politically, this is unsettling. Even if it doesn’t affect you personally, some of those people may be your customers. Likely, those people are also part of your supply chain. Even if you want to completely ignore the human toll, this is also one of the reasons your costs are going up.
Remaining apolitical about this is no longer that easy. It is undeniable that your customers, the visitors to your online store, your contacts, and just about everyone around you are uneasy about where this is headed. No matter where you stand, all this is impacting your bottom line. The mere fact that I have strong trepidations about even mentioning politics in this blog is indicative of how deeply unsettled the business environment is.
Just as your customers and your suppliers will be less willing to open their wallets, so will people everywhere. Small business owners like yourself be also be more reluctant to spend on software and new computers. This negative environment will impact small businesses just as much as large corporations like Microsoft.
“2025 is truly the worst possible time for Microsoft to set this ultimatum to upgrade-or-else!”
As a result, fewer people will upgrade their computers than ever before. This year is truly the worst time for Microsoft to set this ultimatum… and this leads me to my next point.
Extenuating Factor #3: A New Disdain is Brewing
There is more to this reluctance to buy software and hardware right now than just having a bad feeling about it. There is also a swelling anger that is growing about corporate greed. This is because of a general disdain that people have about very rich people, especially those in tech like Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Tim Cook, Peter Thiel, and Mark Zuckerberg.
To many people, it seems obscene that these very rich people are taking leisure trips into space, buying extravagant yachts, and having needlessly lavish weddings. Yes, the US has always had extravagant millionaires, and people have usually dismissed them as homegrown royalty to admire. However, this past year, these same billionaires also purchased access to the political process more openly than ever before.
For many people, this is a bridge too far, especially as they struggle to pay bills and put food on the table. There seems to be something very un-American about the exclusivity of the super-rich and the economic difficulties of everyone else. They see the economic divide as growing, and they aren’t on the winning side.
Yacht leaving the Bahamas (photo by Diego F. Parra on Pexels)
Likewise, this relationship with the super-rich also influences the way that small business owners feel about them. While they aspire to join the ranks of the super-rich themselves, there is also a growing sentiment that they may never reach that level of success. As costs continue to rise, their customers spend less on products while the future outlook continues to dim. These business owners as also becoming more fearful of finding themselves on the losing side of the divide.
One corporation that is likely to illicit similar ire is Microsoft, along with the billionaires that it is has produced. Everyone knows Bill Gates as one of the wealthiest Americans. They also know that the former CEO, Steve Balmer, made out well enough when he purchased the LA Clippers sports franchise. While the current CEO, Satya Nadella, is not as flamboyant, there is no doubt that he is doing quite well financially, too.
All that obscene wealth and influence are the result of what many people consider predatory and non-competitive practices. Even if those practices are completely legal and justifiable, they are still seen as unfair to everyday Americans and small business owners. For decades, they have been forced into purchasing new software licenses that also funded those extravagances, and it just doesn’t seem fair.
This unbalanced reality gives rise to a larger anti-corporate sentiment than ever before. Whether that anger is directed at the billionaires or their companies doesn’t matter. What matters is that ultimately, fewer people will pay for extended software support or new computers. There is a growing sense that people just don’t want to pay for the extravagances of the super-rich anymore, and that will manifest itself in lower numbers of people upgrading their computers this fall.
People feel trapped, even more so this year because of the economic and social factors mentioned above. If only they had an alternative option that addressed those concerns. What if there were an option that also made an economic statement to the corporate world, a statement that this time, the people have a choice
Well, there is, which leads me to the final point.
Extenuating Factor #4: Linux Has Grown Up
What if there were an operating system that people everywhere could install that did not feed corporate excesses, that made an economic point just by existing, that made people feel better about their choices, that was also less expensive, and that was available right now?
There is, and that option is Linux.
In the past, Linux has been dismissed as complex, weird, and unserious. It was the operating system hackers used and required far too much skill to use properly. Yes, that was all true, but Linux has changed since that time. More importantly, people have changed. The many reasons for dismissing Linux have faded because technology has evolved.
Here are some things you may not know about Linux:
It is widely used on systems at Amazon, Google, and even Microsoft.
It is free to license, free to distribute, and free to modify.
It is what runs most cell phones, tablets, and point-of-sale systems.
Underneath its graphical interface, AppleOS runs a similar operating system.
Chromebooks run a version of Linux, too.
You are undoubtedly using it already around your home and your business.
However, the biggest factor is that Linux is no longer complicated. It has grown up, and people are more tech-savvy today. Making the switch to Linux is now much easier. If you have used a Chromebook before, then you can literally install that same familiar operating system on your computer right now and get back to work.
Chrome OS Screenshot (image provided by Wikimedia Foundation, CC BY-SA 3.0)
As a matter of fact, let’s do that right now. It will only take about 20 minutes, really. You can find the steps to do that right here: on Google’s Official Instructions Page. Go ahead, I’ll wait…
See, that was pretty easy, wasn’t it?
The best part is that you can do this on your computer right now without making any changes to Windows. You can just boot up with that USB thumb drive and unplug it is you change your mind. While this is the absolute simplest way to switch to Linux, it is true in that ChromeOS limits you to the Google ecosystem. There are many other options, though – they require a few extra steps from ChromeOS, but the process is very similar.
The bottom line is that Linux is readily available, easy to use, and it’s free, so you’ll no longer be paying for billionaire space flights out of your pocket. This ease of access and use is another factor why I believe that Linux will see far greater adoption this year than ever before.
Using Linux is a breath of fresh air in a world where everything seems to be smoldering. If you run a small business and you just can’t bring yourself to pay the heavy toll on that long road to business success, then perhaps Linux may be an option for you, too.
Conclusion: Despite its upsides, Linux is not for Everyone
As I mentioned earlier, not everyone will switch to Linux. People, especially business owners, need to weigh their options. Some software, most notably Adobe software and business applications like Quickbooks, don’t run directly on Linux. This may be a dealbreaker for many.
On the other hand, many software apps can now run in a browser, which means they can run on Linux that way. Even Microsoft Word and Excel can run from within a browser on Linux; so can the entire Google ecosystem. I manage all my online accounts from Squarespace to Xero to Notion on my Linux computer these days.
If you aren’t married at the hip to Microsoft Office, there are also Linux alternatives that will work just fine with your old documents and spreadsheets. One of the most popular ones is called LibreOffice, and just like its name sounds, it is also free to use.
Most importantly, though, just as the LibreOffice name suggests, Linux is liberating. There is a feeling of empowerment that arises from making the switch. When I reach out to people online for help with Linux, the interaction is typically positive. Thousands of people have made the switch and are on the same journey.
This creates a sense of community that I never experienced with Windows. I’m rather partial to Linux Mint, a very Windows-like beginner-oriented version of Linux that I recommend for anyone else making the switch. The reason is that the community that is there is friendly, courteous, and quite helpful.
That community doesn’t just share your journey; they also share your values to some extent. Their reason for switching to Linux is often the same as yours, and specifically, their ideas about software licensing are likely the same as well. This isn’t just a welcome alternative, but also a source of strength and power-in-numbers.
As a result, I really believe that this October will be a tipping point for Windows and a watershed moment for Linux. That is not to say that the whole world will be moving to Linux en masse, but it does mean many more will do so than ever before. Too many factors are pointing in that direction in 2025.
